Interview with Nick Westcott and Julien Serre
As the conflict between Israel and Hamas keeps on growing, and the humanitarian situation in Gaza keeps on worsening, this month we have the pleasure of talking to two guests: Nick Westcott, Professor at SOAS (London) and former Middle East Director at the European External Action Service (EEAS), and Julien Serre, founder and director of Whaydon, a new strategic intelligence consultancy focusing on European industrial issues and international questions, with a focus on fragile states. With them, we look at the EU’s position on the conflict, its shortcomings and levers for action, and the issue of the reconstruction of Gaza.
Q1. Nick Westcott, how did you observe the different stances taken by EU governments on the conflict between Israel and Hamas after the October 7 terrorist attacks? Did you note any unexpected reaction in view of the traditional dividing lines between EU countries? Have European governments progressively been able to take more balanced stances, in line with some notable evolutions observed within their own public opinions?
European countries have historically taken a common position on the Middle East Peace Process, supporting a two-state solution in line with the Oslo Accords. But within that consensus there has been a wider range of views about the steps Europe should take to support that solution. Collectively, the EU’s main institutional relationship with Israel has been an Association Agreement which includes trade measures, and it is agreed that products from the Occupied Territories cannot be labelled as Israeli under that agreement. The expansion of settlements in to the OTs is also something that all member states have opposed. But nationally, some European countries such as Germany, Austria, Greece, Cyprus have traditionally been more supportive of the Israeli position and others (Belgium, Ireland, France) been more sympathetic to the Palestinian cause. Governments have broadly reflected public opinion on this.
Events since the 7 October attacks, however, have led to a greater polarisation of opinion within European countries rather than between them, creating delicate political situations for many governments who have to contain both anti-semitic and Islamophobic sentiments expressed. The initial reaction from the EU was embarrassingly confused, with the Commissioner for the Neighbourhood, responsible for aid to Palestinians, saying all of it would be immediately suspended, only for the Commission to correct this to say it would be reviewed, and later confirm that none of it benefited Hamas and so was reinstated, and significant differences between President von der Leyen, and High Representative Borrell, the latter underlining the importance of respecting international humanitarian law. Despite this illustration of the different approaches, European countries have seen public support for an immediate ceasefire growing as the death toll in Gaza has inexorably risen. Most now support the swiftest possible end to the fighting.
Q2. Julien Serre, the EU (i.e. its Member states and institutions) seems all too often embarrassed by the Israeli-Palestinian file since its origins and throughout its different conflicts. Yet, setting foreign policy and defense issues aside, the EU does provide a valuable contribution to the socio-economic and human development of both Israel and the Palestinian Authority as well as of neighbouring countries. Can you recall what the EU does in the region?
From 2014 to 2020, the EU provided €2.2 billion in bilateral assistance to Palestinians, significantly impacting socio-economic and human development in Gaza and the West Bank, albeit without a cohesive strategy. This disjointed approach, despite its comprehensive nature, aims to foster regional stability, peace, and prosperity.
The EU’s efforts encompass humanitarian aid, supporting Palestinian families through the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East (UNRWA) and PEGASE (an EU-Palestine socio-economic aid management instrument), especially amidst conflict. In governance, it focuses on state-building for the Palestinian Authority, with substantial work in institution building, governance, rule of law, and private sector development, exemplified by the “EUPOL COPPS” mission in Ramallah.
The EU-Palestine partnership is underpinned by the 1997 Interim Association Agreement and the 2013 EU-Palestine Action Plan, part of the European Neighbourhood Policy (ENP), recently extended until 2025. Despite Israeli restrictions, the EU has initiated projects to boost the Palestinian economy, including credit guarantees and vocational training.
Engagement with civil society includes programs like “Partnership for Peace” and the European Instrument for Democracy and Human Rights, addressing issues related to the occupation. Regionally, initiatives like the European Peacebuilding Initiative emphasize the EU’s commitment to democracy, sustainable service delivery, and economic development.
Financial contributions from the EU and member states like Germany and France have varied, with overall assistance from OECD DAC donors increasing since 2000. The European Investment Bank (EIB) collaborates with Palestine in sectors like energy, water, and transport, with over €600 million invested.
Overall, big infrastructure projects are rather found in Israel – where EIB operates in line with the (ENP). As a comparison, imagine that the EIB has been financing four public-private partnerships related to the Sea Water Reverse Osmosis desalination plants, representing €560 million.
These commitments, though significant, are not widely known among EU citizens. The varied levels of aid and lack of a unified approach highlight the challenges in harmonizing the EU’s stance on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Recent efforts include increasing humanitarian assistance to Palestinians, with about €70 million allocated for 2023. This increase, alongside the World Bank’s $20 million emergency relief for Gaza, acknowledges the current limitations in resource absorption in the region.
Q3. Nick Westcott, notwithstanding the foreign policy and defense stance the EU may adopt in the region, it seems clear that many stakeholders in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict are expecting to see the EU play a greater role in the future. EU values of peace, security and prosperity are clearly at stake. According to you, how could the EU’s stance on the conflict be strengthened?
The EU’s levers are primarily economic rather than diplomatic, and these would need to be deployed to support a viable two-state solution. Trade with the EU will be as important for a Palestinian state as for Israel, so the EU would need to insist on equal treatment in terms of trade, as well as providing financial support for the humanitarian and development needs of the Palestinians.
At the moment, however, the EU is a bystander in the negotiations. Besides France, Malta is currently the only other EU member state on the Security Council, where negotiations on a ceasefire resolution are taking place. The US, United Arab Emirates (UAE), Egypt and Qatar are those most involved, and without a clear, unified position, Europe’s interests will go by default. For the EU does have major interests in the stability of the region as a whole as well as a stable settlement of Israel-Palestine dispute. Only by agreeing a single, forward-looking policy and appointing a heavyweight political envoy to present it to the US and Arab partners across the region can the EU make an effective – and necessary – contribution to the peace process. This is necessary because the EU’s proximity and economic engagement are one of the best guarantees that a settlement will prove economically beneficial to both sides.
As we have seen in the past two months, there is no point building schools and clinics in Gaza if they are going to be destroyed, or supporting businesses and projects in the West Bank if they are going to be strangled by settlers. So the EU should move swiftly to support the start of meaningful negotiations which will be the only way to provide both sides with the security they need and the political freedom they deserve.
Q4. Julien Serre, you recently published an editorial, in the French daily Les Echos, on the contribution the EU could make on the reconstruction of Gaza. You are making the case of a greater contribution to security, human security, the “continuum of reconstruction” and multilateralism. Can you elaborate on the reasons why the EU’s contribution on this issue is so important and what concrete added value it could bring?
In my Les Echos editorial, I emphasized the European Union’s crucial role in Gaza’s reconstruction, dismissing notions of a weak and ineffective Europe. My proposal focuses on immediate humanitarian aid and establishing long-term peace and stability. This includes leveraging the EU’s economic and geopolitical influence to support peacebuilding, security, and development, and advocating for a two-state solution for Israel and Palestine.
The EU’s underrated contribution to regional security involves high-quality technical assistance operations, which also target terrorism financing, aligning with the EU’s commitment to maintaining regional security and supporting international efforts like in Ukraine.
The concept of ‘human security’ is vital, encompassing not just physical safety but also access to essential services. Projects improving living conditions in Gaza, like desalination and electricity supply systems, are critical. The EU’s expertise in project implementation, through organizations like the EIB and the French Development Agency, ensures efficient resource use and successful large-scale infrastructure projects.
Supporting the multilateral system is key to the EU’s strategy. The United Nations, backed by the EU, can provide a holistic response to Gaza’s challenges, including empowering the Coordinator for the Palestinian Territories Sigrid Kaag, and mobilizing key agencies such as UNDP and UNOPS, alongside the international financial institutions. On 22 December 2023, its Security Council adopted a light resolution calling for an increase in aid to civilians in the Gaza Strip.
Europeans, sharing US concerns about the Israel-Gaza conflict’s potential regional spillover, need a unified EU stance for an effective response. Josep Borrell’s indication of a two-state solution and the need for Palestinian elections represents a viable path forward. Europe’s unity is essential for a strong, constructive response to the conflict.
