Interview with Dr. Davide Vampa
Senior Lecturer in Politics, Aston University, UK
Q1. Prime Minister Sanchez caught just about everyone off guard, including his own party, the Spanish Socialist Workers’ Party (PSOE), when he announced on the morning after the PSOE suffered a bitterly disappointing set of results at regional and local elections held on 28 May, that the general election would be brought forward five months, to 23 July. How are we to explain the result of the last elections?
The result of the last elections can be explained by considering several factors. It is not uncommon for parties in government to suffer defeats in local elections, especially during challenging times. Local elections may reflect specific regional issues and concerns. At the same time, voters may express their discontent or dissatisfaction with the ruling party at the local level or use the local election to send signals to the national party in government.
Since 2019, there has been a reconfiguration on the right side of the political spectrum in Spain. The People’s Party (PP) has experienced a strengthening, partly due to the collapse of Ciudadanos, another center-right party. Additionally, the emergence and consolidation of Vox, a right-wing populist party, have significantly impacted Spanish politics. Vox has become a stable actor in Spanish politics, attracting support from conservative voters and contributing to the rightward shift in the political landscape.
Spanish politics, like Italy’s, has undergone a shift towards the right. However, unlike in Italy, the two established parties in Spain, including the PSOE, have been relatively more resilient. Despite losing in the local elections, the PSOE still managed to secure a vote share similar to that of the 2019 local elections. This suggests that the PSOE maintains a significant base of support, even though it may have faced challenges in specific regions or localities.
In summary, the disappointing results for the PSOE in the last elections can be attributed to various factors, including the common occurrence of parties in government facing setbacks in local elections, the reconfiguration on the right side of the political spectrum with the recovery of the PP and the rise of Vox, and the overall rightward shift in Spanish politics. However, it is important to note that the PSOE, despite its loss, has maintained a considerable level of support across the country. By calling a snap election, Sanchez is probably hoping to be able to mobilize voters who didn’t vote in the local election. So far polls suggest that there is a growing concentration of votes around the two main parties, so even if the PSOE is still behind the PP, it is growing electorally and it might even expand its share of the vote compared to 2019. However, the weakening of its left-wing partners will make the formation of a centre-left government more challenging.
Q2. Prime Minister Sanchez’s coalition, secured in December 2019 after the April and November 2019 elections, has been dubbed by his immediate predecessor as Party leader, Alfredo Perez Rubalcaba, a “Frankenstein administration” because of its unnatural association with other parties, notably the Pablo Iglesias-led anti-austerity Unidas Podemos. Yet, this supposedly unnatural coalition has nevertheless enjoyed success in office. Can you recall what its main achievements are?
The coalition between the Spanish Socialist Workers’ Party (PSOE) and Unidas Podemos, led by Pablo Iglesias, has indeed been a significant development in Spanish politics. It marked the first coalition government in Spain since the 1930s (before the Franco era). Prior to 2019, Spanish governments were typically formed by a single party, either with a majority or a minority in parliament. The emergence of a coalition government, which was simultaneously a minority government requiring support from regionalist and sub-state nationalist parties, was a novel occurrence.
Regarding the characterization of the coalition as “unnatural”, it can be argued that such a description may not be entirely accurate. While the coalition brings together two parties with distinct ideological positions, with PSOE being more moderate and Unidas Podemos being more radical, similar “plural” centre-left coalitions exist in other countries, such as those seen in Scandinavia. Therefore, the PSOE-Podemos coalition can be seen as a result of a strategic alignment between parties on the left side of the political spectrum.
The coalition government has achieved notable successes during its time in office. One of its key accomplishments has been the pursuit of expansionary economic policies, aiming to counter the effects of years of “austerity” measures and support the country’s recovery following the pandemic. As a result, the Spanish economy has experienced significant growth and is now one of the fastest-growing economies in Europe.
However, it is important to acknowledge that despite the government’s achievements, structural weaknesses persist in the Spanish economy, such as relatively high unemployment rates. While the coalition has implemented measures to address these issues, it is an ongoing challenge that requires sustained efforts. Overall, the Spanish economy remains vulnerable and global challenges might lead to a new crisis.
In summary, the PSOE-Podemos coalition government in Spain has marked a significant departure from the previous political landscape. Despite initial concerns about its viability and compatibility, the coalition has managed to implement expansionary economic policies and support the country’s economic recovery. While some challenges remain, the coalition’s achievements indicate a level of success and collaboration between the two parties on the left.
Q3. Spain’s polity, just like those of many other European countries, is revealing some tectonic shifts within the left and right blocs. On the left, the formerly attractive Podemos movement seems to be replaced by Yolanda Diaz’s (the current Labor minister) Sumar initiative, which has attracted support from the communist-dominated United Left Mas Pais and Compromis, the Valencia-based electoral coalition. On the right, the Partido Popular (PP) seeks to promote its own upward trajectory, yet is unlikely to secure a government without the support of Vox, a nationalist party. What do these trends say about the left and right electorates’ new expectations?
The increasing fragmentation and volatility observed in European politics, including Spain, have brought about significant shifts within the left and right blocs. In the past, the Spanish Socialist Workers’ Party (PSOE) and the Partido Popular (PP) could appeal to wider electorates and dominate the political landscape. However, today they coexist with two more radical parties on the left and the right, indicating that voters are seeking alternatives beyond the traditional parties.
On the left, Podemos has witnessed a transformation, with Sumar gaining prominence. The rise of the Sumar initiative indicates a reconfiguration within the left bloc, where voters are seeking fresh voices and alternative platforms.
Similarly, on the right, the Partido Popular (PP) is recovering after a period of crisis. However, it is unlikely to win an outright majority and will need the support of Vox, a populist radical right party. This may indicate that the right-wing electorate’s expectations have shifted, with a desire for more assertive and nationalist policies. The need for the PP to form alliances with Vox highlights the changing dynamics within the right bloc, reflecting the evolving expectations of right-wing voters who are looking for parties that address their specific concerns and demands.
Despite these shifts and the emergence of new political players, the competition between the left and right still dominates Spanish politics. This competition, intersecting with territorial fractures, indicates that the left-right divide has not been fundamentally redefined or replaced by new cleavages. While the established parties, such as the PSOE and the PP, have managed to remain dominant within their respective political camps, they have been forced to forge alliances with more radical junior partners. The distribution of the Spanish electorate has not experienced radical change on the left-right spectrum, it is more a change of the political “supply” that we observe. Traditional left-right dynamics continue to play a central role in shaping political expectations.
In summary, the tectonic shifts within the left and right blocs in Spain’s political landscape reflect a growing fragmentation and volatility in European politics. The emergence of new political initiatives on the left and the rise of nationalist sentiment on the right signal changing expectations among voters. However, despite these shifts, the competition between the left and right remains dominant, and the distribution of the Spanish electorate has not undergone a drastic transformation. In Italy, for example, the process of political de-alignment and party system de-institutionalization has been much more noticeable.
Q4. The Spanish presidency of the Council of the European Union is starting just this month, and will last until the end of the year. Can you recall what the priorities of the current government, as well as those from the right-wing opposition, are? Is the Partido Popular ready for this exercise at all? And how is the Presidency likely to be affected by the uncertainty pertaining to the constitution of new coalition governments? Can we expect Spain’s well-deserved reputation as an engaging European partner to be tarnished?
The Spanish Presidency of the European Union, which is just starting in the second half of this year, will prioritize “strategic autonomy” as a key objective. The president, Pedro Sánchez emphasized the need to advance towards “open strategic autonomy”, which essentially means attaining European sovereignty by having decision-making powers in crucial areas such as the economy, health, defence, technology, and industry.
Under the Spanish Presidency, reducing vulnerabilities and strengthening autonomy in strategic sectors will be a significant focus. This approach aims to protect the so-called “social majority” and foster investment that revitalizes and legitimizes the European project, particularly in light of the crisis arising from the conflict in Ukraine.
Despite the strategic autonomy agenda, the overall orientation of EU policies is unlikely to experience drastic shifts. Both the current government, led by the Spanish Socialist Workers’ Party (PSOE), and the main right-wing opposition, the Partido Popular (PP), generally maintain support for the European Union. This commitment to the EU is not seriously challenged by their more radical political components and this underscores the continuity in Spain’s engagement with the European project.
While uncertainties regarding the formation of new coalition governments could introduce some challenges during the Spanish Presidency, they are unlikely to significantly tarnish Spain’s reputation as an engaged European partner. The country’s commitment to the European Union remains steadfast, and the rotating Presidency provides an opportunity to influence the EU agenda. However, it is important to note that the impact of the Presidency on EU policies is often more symbolic than transformative.
In conclusion, the Spanish Presidency of the European Union will prioritize strategic autonomy as a key objective, aiming to enhance decision-making powers in strategic sectors. This aligns with the sentiment among Spaniards, who still see themselves as European citizens and have confidence in the European project’s ability to tackle challenges. Despite potential uncertainties in coalition formations, Spain’s reputation as an engaged European partner is unlikely to be significantly affected, given the general support for the EU among major political parties and their commitment to the European project.
