We asked Professor of Contemporary British Civilisation Pauline Schnapper (Université Sorbonne Nouvelle) to share her thoughts on the Conservative leadership campaign before it ends on September 5th.
Prof. Schnapper recently published Où va le Royaume-Uni? (Where is the UK going?) with Emmanuel Avril (Odile Jacob, 2019).
The Tory leadership race will be ending with the election of the party’s new leader (and thus future Prime minister) by party members on September 5th: can you recall the main ideological and policy differences between Mr Rishi Sunak and Mrs Liz Truss ?
There are no huge differences between the two: both come from the Conservative party and endorse the Thatcher legacy. Rishi Sunak is more moderate in general, and notably on economic policy, which was the central issue in the campaign, whereas Liz Truss appears more radical. On the economy, Liz Truss has been insisting on the need to cut taxes in spite of the worrying inflationary outlook. She wants to reduce the corporate tax, the “green levy” (a tax on energy prices) and national insurance contributions and accepts to have more public debt as a result. Sunak, on the other hand, is much more worried by inflation and portrays himself as more responsible on public finance. He wants to tackle inflation first and reduce taxes later, even though he has belatedly accepted to cut VAT on energy bills. They were speaking to party members, for whom tax cuts are much more important than for the general public as Conservative members are not only Southerners and older, but also richer than the average population.
What were the main issues debated in this campaign, both in its initial phase (when eight candidates were running) and in the run-off between the two prominent candidates? Were there marking events or turning points at all?
It is important to stress that the issues debated during the campaign were largely those of the Conservative party members. They were not reflecting the broader concerns and issues of the British population, which are not only about inflation but also about the national health service (NHS), social care, education or the newer “levelling up” agenda (i.e. reducing territorial inequalities in the UK, which was central in explaining the Brexit vote). As a result, the debate was very much biased to start with and the initial phase of the campaign reflected this pattern. The eight candidates talked about economic policy, a little bit about the NHS, not about foreign policy or Europe. Rather, they spent a considerable amount of time on “cultural wars”, “wokism”, “political correctness” and the difficulty to talk freely in Britain. The latter theme has more or less disappeared during the run-off between Rishi Sunak and Liz Truss, even though Sunak hinted at it when talking about security challenges.
There were no real turning points during the campaign. The dynamics underlying Liz Truss, which became apparent in the middle of July, merely derived from the more important support she received from other candidates and their supporters after they were eliminated. These were mostly right wingers. Rishi Sunak, on the other hand, benefited from the support of the few remaining centrists in the party right from the start and had fewer votes he could rely on in the run-off. He did not make any real mistake and most economists actually assessed his economic policy to be more appropriate, but he did not have much chance. It is just as important to recall that the Conservative party has become more right-wing, populist even, over the last ten years, than it was before. The few moderate party members remaining have been excluded by the outgoing Prime minister, Boris Johnson, and Liz Truss benefited from this shift in the party’s stance, even though she was not particularly popular with MPs to start with.
Did Brexit play a role in this campaign ? Was there some kind of acknowledgment by party members and candidates alike that the referendum had some negative consequences that needed to be dealt with?
Absolutely not. Brexit was not really debated and there was no acknowledgment by party members or candidates that leaving the EU was a bad idea. The Conservative party remains in a sort of bubble thinking that Brexit is a wonderful opportunity and that the UK does not suffer from it. And if there are some negative consequences, these are likely to be solved promptly. The two frontrunners agreed that Brexit was a great opportunity, provided the UK chose to diverge from EU regulations to enhance trade. The main difference between Rishi Sunak and Liz Truss is on the Northern Ireland protocol: as Foreign Secretary, Liz Truss has introduced the “Northern Ireland Protocol Bill” which, if passed by Parliament, would represent a major breach of the deal signed with the EU. During the campaign, she also promised to trigger Article 16 of the protocol (the process for taking unilateral “safeguard” measures if either the EU or UK concludes that the deal is leading to serious practical problems or causing diversion of trade) quickly.
There is some speculation as to what the future Tory leader (and thus future Prime minister) will do regarding Britain’s relations with the EU: can we expect a fresh start in the bilateral relations or merely some progress on the Northern Ireland protocol ?
As I said, the two frontrunners, Rishi Sunak and Liz Truss, both endorse Brexit (even though Liz Truss was initially a “Remainer”) and think it will bring numerous opportunities. They both want to get it going, to scrap unnecessary “red tape” historically related to EU law. The two are concerned about the Northern Ireland Protocol’s negative effects on trade between Great Britain and Northern Ireland. But the difference between the two candidates with respect to engaging the EU is one of tone, not of attitude or substance. Rishi Sunak wants to reduce obstacles to trade but argues there should at least be some kind of negotiations with the EU to solve practical issues, whereas Liz Truss is much more aggressive and ready to engage in arm wrestling. If she wins, as is likely when looking at the polls, prospects do not look good. And quite frankly it will be difficult to expect any progress at all as long as the Conservatives stay in power, that is until 2024 if there are no general elections before the end of the legislature. For EU leaders, the next British Prime Minister will not be easier to deal with than Boris Johnson.
